Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
